Beyond the Bubble in Japan’s Art Market
By Louis Lu
The booth of Perrotin at Art Collaboration Kyoto 2024. Photo by Moriya Yuki. Courtesy Art Collaboration Kyoto.
What can we learn from a market that is simultaneously contracting yet is also showing signs of growth and resilience? The Japanese Art Market 2024 report, commissioned by Japan’s Agency for Cultural Affairs and released on December 17, presents exactly this puzzle. Authored by economist Clare McAndrew—whose company Art Economics has produced the Art Basel and UBS Global Collecting Survey since 2017—the report draws from national economic statistics and combines dealer and auction sector data from 2023 to provide an analysis of Japan’s art market.
The numbers reveal a nuanced market dynamic. Despite a ten percent year-on-year decline—from a high of USD 756 million in 2022 to USD 681 million in 2023—the Japanese market has achieved 11 percent growth since 2019, significantly outpacing not only the global market’s modest one percent expansion but also that of major art markets such as the US and UK.
The five-year track record of growth is a sign of resilience given recent history. In 2020, amid the Covid-19 pandemic, the value of the Japanese art market plunged by 38 percent to USD 377 million—a fall steeper than the worldwide market’s 22 percent downturn. What followed, however, was a dramatic rebound. Japan’s market sales surged 62 percent in 2021, followed by an additional surge of almost 24 percent in 2022, before cooling down in 2023.
Although Japan’s sales increase demonstrates its potential, the Asian art market is still dominated by China. According to the report, Japan was the region’s second largest market with a moderate five percent share while China (including mainland China and Hong Kong) accounted for a staggering 80 percent. Despite the massive disparity, Japan’s cultural influence in the region extends beyond mere numbers with major postwar artists and movements.
The Art Week Tokyo Focus exhibition is a selling show held at the Okura Museum of Art. Courtesy Art Week Tokyo.
Dealers and galleries formed the backbone of Japan’s art market, generating USD 460 million—over two thirds (68 percent) of total transactions. This network of over 2,060 art businesses showed distinct geographical patterns, with 59 percent of businesses operating in Tokyo and 66 percent in the broader Kanto region, making Tokyo an intensely concentrated hub for the country’s art trading. Among the businesses surveyed, 18 percent were reported to operate solely in the primary market, supporting the career development of living artists in Japan. On the other hand, dealers working exclusively in the secondary market, despite comprising just ten percent of total business, generated more than twice the average annual sales turnover of those in the primary market.
While some operated exclusively in one or the other, around half of dealers adopted a hybrid model that combined primary sales and resales. For those active in both markets, 58 percent of sales came from resales. This could be a sign of a more conservative purchasing approach, with collectors favoring secondary market artists with established reputations and track records over emerging talents.
Nevertheless, primary sales have gained ground steadily, with the share of total transaction value gradually climbing from 35 percent in 2022 to 42 percent in 2023. This growth is also reflected in the increase in the average number of artists represented by galleries, from 20 in 2022 to 27 in 2023. The survey, however, highlighted a commercial reality: despite the growing representations, for most galleries, over 40 percent of revenue stemmed from the top three most commercially successful artists. The remaining artists generated more modest returns but still required substantial support in exhibition, production, and promotional efforts. The report noted that while aggregated dealer sales dipped by nine percent, smaller galleries with an annual turnover under USD 500,000 experienced an unexpected upward trend in sales. Maybe bigger isn’t always better in the art world.
In the auction sector, sales growth also slowed down, with aggregate values dropping by 12 percent to USD 221 million. While on the surface this seems to mirror the global auction market struggles, the report shows that Japan’s auction landscape operates at significantly lower price levels, unlike its global counterparts where headline-grabbing million-dollar sales dominated. In 2023, while seven-figure works accounted for 55 percent of the global fine art sales, they represented a fractional 0.03 percent in Japan. Here, the market thrived in the under-USD 50,000 range, with 98 percent of works selling at auction below that price point and 91 percent at below USD 10,000. Compared to the global average of USD 43,330, the average hammer price in Japan is USD 6,200—a significantly lower number that seems to suggest a market that prioritizes accessibility over spectacle.
As international galleries, collectors, and art professionals continue to turn their gaze toward Japan, the Japanese Art Market 2024 report portrays a distinctive ecosystem that charts its own course. Whether it is gallery exhibitions, museum shows, art fairs, or the emergence of ambitious art initiatives such as Art Week Tokyo, Japan’s art market appears increasingly comfortable with global attention. In a world where art markets often operate at extremes, could Japan’s more accessible market be a different path forward?
Louis Lu is associate editor at ArtAsiaPacific.
